(1) Latest update on SPX. Failure to make a new low below the opening range low of 4367.73 is bullish. If price can now get back above today’s 4418.61 high then it’s quite possible that price will not reverse at 4425-4430 resistance.
It’s clear why /ES found support here! It was both a (near) touch of the rising lower band AND a failed breakdown below yesterday’s low. Great location for a long trade with a hard stop below the low of the day. If price can climb back above 4415-22 there could be a strong short squeeze!
Solid resistance for SPX in the 4425-4430 range today. I’ll likely add short Deltas there for another leg lower if price gets there. It still has work to do just to get to that level!
441.80 is strong resistance on the SPY and is a good level to initiate a bearish trade. A failed move above that level would be particularly compelling! 👀
Below is the weekly SPX chart with 8 SMA bands. There have been 6 touches (1 was more of a near touch) of the rising lower band since the beginning of 2021. Each of those touches represented a great buying location! Will that happen again? Of course that’s impossible to say but I’ll certainly be watching for a bullish reversal signal on the daily chart when price is in that vicinity. As of today, the lower band is near 4336. 👀
Including some other timeframes and important price levels helps add context to the SPX price analysis. These charts include the daily 8 and 20 SMA bands, the 1.5 std. dev. Bollinger Bands and the 60-minute and weekly charts as well. The lower Bollinger Band often provides some support as it’s an indication of a very oversold instrument. The 4330 area on the weekly chart really stands out as a very good location for a longer-term bullish trade should price drop that far.
(2) GLD is looking interesting here. Price has been moving sideways for the last few days which has allowed the 8-day SMA to turn up. The weekly bands are also flattening which is setting them up to potentially provide support. Also notice that price has moved lower over the past 3 days within the 20 day bands which are also beginning to flatten. Price should instead be moving lower below the lower band if the bears are still in charge. When something bearish fails to happen that’s often bullish. I’d like to see price break out above this week’s 167.73 high followed by a move above last month’s 168.51 HB to confirm what could be a long-term move higher.
