COST has been is a year-long rally where the stock is up over 100%. At no point during that rally has price pulled-back to the 50% – 61.8% retracement Fib support zone drawn from the 3/5/2021 low to the most recent high. The Fib support zone here is drawn from that low to the 4/7/2022 high. There is no indication at this point in time that price has made a significant high. It isn’t necessary to try to identify a top because I’m looking to get long the stock at a good location. Based on the 597.27 current high 408.61 – 444.64 is good location for a long trade. Now it’s just a matter of waiting for either a retracement to that zone or until a new high is made at which time the Fib support zone will be re-drawn higher.
Fast forward in time to 5/19/2022 and price has dropped to the bottom of the Fib support zone with the low of the day being within $1 of the 61.8% Fib retracement of the prior major rally. This is good location for a long trade. A long trade taken at the day’s closing price of 414.40 is better location than every other long taken since 8/3/2021. In other words, every buyer of the stock since 8/3/2021 paid a higher price for the stock than the Fib retracement buyer on 5/18/2022 did! Any stock buyer who bought near the 4/7/2022 high would be down close to 30% on their purchase.
2 days later and doubt is creeping into the trade because price is now moving below the 61.8% Fib retracement level. If that was such good location to buy the stock then why isn’t it rallying? While Fib levels often see a reaction within plus/minus a few cents it’s important to remember that while algorithmic (algo) traders are often resting at Fib levels they’re often not the only players on the field. If a big institution is either buying or selling a stock the algos can get overwhelmed however it’s also important to remember that it’s still good location even if price moves past it without finding acceptance. Acceptance refers to time and volume traded. If price moves beyond a Fib level but doesn’t spend a relatively large amount of time or see a large amount of volume traded then the Fib level is still good location.
Advancing 2 more days and price has moved back above the very important 61.8% Fib level. A trader can apply the if/then rule to the chart analysis at this point. IF buyers are motivated (or sellers are no longer motivated) THEN the expectation is that a failed breakdown below the Fib level is very bullish and confirms that it was good location for a long options trade or to buy the stock as long as price remains above that Fib level. If I was trading that setup I might use the low of the failed breakdown candle as a hard stop on a trade.
Now moving forward in time by a couple months you can see that price did indeed remain above that failed breakdown low and has rallied up and away from the Fib retracement support zone. Notice that I’ve added a second Fib support zone based on the rally from the failed breakdown low to the high at #1. At that point in time, if a trader had missed the earlier opportunity to get long, there was another chance at #2 as price retraced back into the new Fib support zone. Did you know that Fib retracement levels can be observed on any timeframe? If you didn’t, well now you do!
Finally advancing to the present time. Nice rally for someone who bought the stock around 425, isn’t it? See those 2 arrows? That’s where price tested the Fib support zone(s) again in 10/2022 and 12/2022. There were still buyers waiting for a retracement back to good location. Now, does this setup work in every case? You already know the answer is…of course not! However, it’s a great way to interpret the motivation level of buyers and sellers. Those areas around the Fib levels are bull/bear levels where you can see who is stronger at that time. If COST had failed to find support at the Fib retracement support zone I wouldn’t trade it long. I’d look for another stock or ETF that buyers are motivated to own. Use your capital wisely!
That area where price found support in the Fib zone becomes structural support for future price action. Even if the Fib retracement support zone is removed from the chart and replaced with a simple box, traders can see that price found support there before so it’s good location to attempt a long trade. As long as those structural support traders show up in addition to the Fib retracement traders then the amount of capital available on the long side is often enough to propel the stock higher. Fib traders will always welcome their future structural trade partners with open arms!
I’ll leave you with one more chart below. INTC with a large decline then forming a double bottom. This is a good example of a structural support level. Strong rally off that level up to (you guessed it didn’t you?) the Fib resistance zone of that prior decline where price turned down again. Now think of all the unfortunate traders who chase price and likely shorted near the lows. They likely endured a lot of pain with many shorts throwing in the towel and buying back their shorts just as price was reaching the Fib resistance zone and turning down again. Woof! Try to make a habit of not chasing price. Don’t chase, wait for the retrace! Going forward, there will likely be many traders and investors who bought that double bottom waiting to sell those shares near breakeven if price gets back to the 24.50 area so that now becomes potentially strong resistance!
One quick note about trading strategy. If I’m trading off a setup where the expected move could last for months I sure wouldn’t be trading options that expire in a few weeks! I would likely be looking at LEAP options or, at the very least, options that have 6+ months of duration. Match the strategy to the chart!
That’s all I have now. If you have questions or comments leave them down below or @VegaOptions on X.