The Week of Oct17, 2021
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PF Journal
The If/Then of Price Action
The HB zone represents the 50%-61.8% retracement of a price range. The price range can be from a pivot low to high or on just a single candle’s range. What type of candle would I apply the HB zone to? When a particularly large candle with a long wick forms on a chart I’ll use … Read more
The Week of Oct10, 2021
October 10th I typically use the weekend to look at the longer-term charts such as the weekly and monthly timeframes. I start with SPX. Below is the weekly chart. I sometimes get the question of why I look at such a close-up view of a chart. It’s because the details of the price action is … Read more
The Week of Oct3, 2021
Oct9 (1) There are some very obvious key levels in the SPX this coming week and in order to identify those levels I only have to look at Thursday’s and Friday’s daily candles. What makes Thursday and Friday such important days? First, Thursday’s price was rejected exactly at the declining 20-day SMA upper band. Both … Read more
Delayed Gratification
Are you the type of trader who likes your profits as soon as you can get them or would your rather let them ‘run’ with the potential of a much larger profit later? Not sure? Maybe a little of both types? Here’s what I typically do. As a trade progresses with a profit I like … Read more
The Week of Sep26, 2021
Oct1 Added a 5-lot of Calls to hedge my ES position as I expect price to rally at least to 4341 today as long as 4293 holds as support. Below is my current risk profile. Below is the ES chart showing where I’ll hedge my hedge. Sep30 The overnight price action in ES is quite … Read more
The Unlimited Risk Trade
(1) My portfolio was long about 35 SPX Beta Weighted Deltas after the close yesterday. Not a lot compared to my typical position but certainly enough to protect. With the prospect of a government shutdown looming the indexes could take a hit here. Overall I think the indexes, especially small caps (RUT), will rally strongly … Read more
As Clear as it Gets!
A very clear four-step setup to see this long opportunity in IWM!
Keep It Simple!
Paul’s comments: I’ve asked Travis to help me with this post because I have points to address that I think he can bring a better perspective to than I can. The point of this post is to help simplify things for most traders. If we give ‘students’ of technical analysis too much information to consider … Read more
Wednesday Sep22
Today is Fed Day! Hooray! 🙄 (1) I’ve mentioned in the past how the 8 SMA can not only be used for identifying trend (upward or downward sloping) and trade location (long at rising lower band, short at declining upper band) but it can also be used for timing purposes. See SPX example below. If … Read more